Disclaimer This report contains preliminary findings on the basis of informatio n obtained from reports prepared by the Chinese experts from the WG on Pollution Control on the environment in Guangzhou, and from discussions with Chinese expe rts from Guangzhou City, Chongqing City, Guangdong Province, South China Institu te of Environmental Protection and Guangzhou Research Institute of Environmental Protection. Remaining questions of the experts of the Netherlands are written i n the text between square brackets.
1. INTRODUCTION
Under the umbrella of the "China Council for International Cooperation on Enviro nment and Development" the Working Group on Pollution Control is developing a po licy plan for the major urban and industrial areas of the Peoples Republic of China. The first years of the Working Groups 5 year action plan priority is gi ven to the collection and assessment of the necessary information e.g. by descri bing the State of the Environment of key regions within Chinas repid developin g industrial areas. A key region should comprise of: one or more larger cities, (part of) a river-basin, one or more industrialised areas in combination (if app licable) with a large agricultural supply region. The State of the Environment s hould be assessed based on existing and to be collected data. After discussion w ith the relevant Chinese authorities it was decided by the Working Group to sele ct as its first study areas (in order of priority):
* the Province of Guangdong with the City of Guangzhou as focal point
* the area around the confluence of the Yangtze and Jialing rivers with the Cit y of Chongqing as its focal point
* the area around the City of Shenyang
In order to assess the reasibility to assemble the information necessary to writ e a State of the Environment Report in China, an Expert Team from the National I nstitute of Publie Health and Environmental Protection conducted from May 17-23, 1994 a pilot study in Guangzhou (and its surroundings).
This report represents the results of the first phase of this pilot study. The f ull pilot study will be completed before the Councel Meeting in 1995.
1.1 Background Information
More than 22% of the world population lives in China. Although the average GDP p er capita (about 350/capita in 1992 prices and exchange rates) is still lower than the world average, China has a fast growing economy with a growth rate of 1 0% per annun or more, from the beginning of economic reform in 1978 onwards. Esp ecially in Southen China further boom in production is expected in the near futu re. China with 22% of the world population uses about 10% of the energy used by the whole world. The energy use per capits is thus still low: in the Netherlands the use of energy per capita is 10 times higher. Energy use could increase by 3 -4% per year. In order to avoid harmful impact caused by the increase of the amo unt of energy uasage and pollutant discharge on the local and even on the whole global environment, China should take effective measures to control pollution. T he developed countries should offer assistance in technoloy and finance in order to keep pollutant discharge to a reasonable level under the situation of rapid economic growth in China. The energy resources in China (114bn tons of coal and more than 1.1 trillion m3 of gas according to 1992 World Energy Council data) do not seem to be a limiting factor for the projected growth in the next decades. China has ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and is willing to help prevent global warming "provided that financial and technical assistance is made available" (World Resource Institute, World Resources 1994-95).
Local air and water pollution and the disposal of (hazardous) industrial and dom estic waste are among the most urgent environmental problems, although depletion (and pollution) of water resources and degradation of cropland due to intensive farming are growing problems, which are already visible in some regions. The ch allenge for the future will be to combine the urbanization and industrialization process with a sustainable use of both soil and water resources. This could req uire changes in agricultural practices in order to maintain the soil productivit y in the long run and to reduce the losses of nutrients and pesticides to ground water resources. Such changes could however lead to lower yields in the short r un. The challenge will become even bigger when the use of renewable energy sourc es (biomass and hydropower) will increase as is to be expected. Photochemical sm og may become a new problem in urban areas, as NOx and HC (hydrocarbons) emissio ns will rise sharply due to the growing number of vehicles. Emission standards f or vehicles regular car inspections and integration of an efficient public trans port system in the design of new towns and suburbs would be importana means to p revent this problem. The irreversible loss of forests, coastal wetlands and wild life habitat, together with acidification damage to crops and sensitive ecosyste ms could get more priority in the future when income levels become higher.
In the period 1991-1995 0.85% of projected GDP will be spend on environmental pr otection. In the period 1986-1990 this was 0.67%. According to the World Bank at least 1.5% of GDP will be required just to stabilize the current environmental degradation. Because of this restricted financial leeway, priority setting on th e basis of an comprehensive approach, such as the comparative risk analysis, cou ld be an importana element in environmental planning in China.
2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Guangdong Province in Southern China covers about 2% of the total Chinese area, but contains more than 5% of the Chinese population and almost ［20%］ of its GD P. Guandzhou is, with more than 6 M inhabitants, the main city of Guangdong. Aft er Beijing and Shanghai, Guangzhou is the largest economic power in China. Guang dong is one of the fastest growing economies in S.E. Asia. Its main city Guangzh ou is expected to become an international megalopolis in the next decade, with m ore 8.3 M people living in the greater Guangzhou area in 2005. At this moment, s till 71% of the area of Guangzhou consists of agricultural land. It is expected that urban and industrial area will be more than doubled in the next decade. The rural areas around Guangzhou city are urbanized and industrialized at a much hi gher speed than was planned in the original 15-year Modernization Programme of 1 984. At that time industrial production in this area was expected to grow from 1 5 bn yuan in 1985 to 45 bn yuan in 2000 (in 1990-prices). In 1993 the industrial production already appeared to be more than two time higher than the projection for 2000! In the period 1991-1993 GDP grew with about 20% per year, surpassing the target of 12% in the long term plan. In Guangzhou GDP per capita was 11,490 yuan, more than 2.5 times higher than the national average.
In Guangzhou heavy industry (petrochemical industry, cement, iron and steel) is still the fastest growing sector. Industry is gradually being moved to satellite zones. Gurrently a new Long Term Plan is prepared by the municipal planning dep artment that sets new targets for population growth and economic growth up to th e year 2005. This new long term plan is now in the process of approval by the pr ovincial and national planning councils. The plan contains an average annual gro wth of industrial production of about 12% from 1990 on, which will more than tri pe the current (1993/94) production level. Energy use is expected to increase b y 8% per year and water use by about 10% per year.
Industrial production growth rates reached record heights in the past decade. In contrast to other regions in China large government owned petrochemical, steel and power plants contribute considerably to the government incomes. Only 20% of firms in Guangzhou need subsidy. These are mainly the older medium sized textile , bicycle and machinery factories. The average labour-productivity in industry i ncreased by more than 30% in the last 3 year. Industry now employs more than 2M people.
The largest growth occurs in the designated "free economic zones" with help of l arge amounts of foreign investments. Especially cleaner manufacturing industries , such as eletronic and pharmaceutical industries are expected to grow fast in t his regions. In some cases older plants are closed in the inner city, while mode rnized and cleaner plants are built in suburban areas.
All new plants and extensions of existion plants require an environmental assess ment report. Minimum pollution requirements are set by the national government, but the local authorities may apply stricter standards depending on the economic and environmental situation. In Guangzhou for new plants "1980" and sometimes " 1990" best available technology is requested, which is on average 40-50% more ef ficient and cleaner than the technologies applied in most existing plants (with "1960" or even "1940" technology). At this moment about 50% of the industries op erate with "old" technology. Large plants are planned to be modernized and noved to suburban areas. Excellent examples of these modern facilities with efficient pollution reduction techologies have been demonstrated during the visit of the Expert Team to Guangzhou City.
The high population density and rapid economic growth give Guangdong characteris tics that are comparable to Taiwan and Singapore in the 1970s. It would probab ly be one of the regions within China where environmental concerns will lead to pleas for a stricter environmental policy at the national level (see Table 2.1). In Guangzhou for several substances emission reduction targets of 75% have been formulated in the city area, and of 25% (on average) in the suburban areas. For large point sources considerable efforts have been made to reduce dust emission s and waste water discharges. Pollution control for the large amount of small sc ale sources will become a major challenge in the near future. Also policies for NOx and VOC have to be developed because, due to the expected increases in motor ized traffic, photochemical smog may become an important threat in the future. M otorized road traffic roughly doubled in the last five years. leading to congest ion, noise and urban air pollutiong.
The economic structure is expected to shift gradually towards lighter and HiTech industries and services. This will lead to a lower energy intensity of the econ omy. Together with technoloical efficiency improvements a "delinkage" will occur between economic development and energy use. In 1986 5.3 tons of Coal equivalen ts were necessary to produce 10,000 yuarn GDP in Guangzhou. In 1990 this was 2.8 tons per 10,000 yuar. In 2005 the energy efficiency is expected to be 1.5 tons per 10,000 yuan. Nevertheless energy use is expected to grow to 30 Mkg of coal e quivalents in 2005. In 1990 energy use was 8.5 Mkg of coal equivalents. In Guang dong the total installed power plant capacity is expected to grow from 13,000 MW in 1993 to 80,000 MW in 2010, of which 40,000 MW will be coal, 15,000 MW muclea r and 25,000 MW hydropower.
Guangdong uses-in comparison to other parts of China-relatively clean coal for i ts electricity generation (1% sulphur) and Guangzhou plans to use more gas for d omestic purposes. Although Guangzhou electricity is produced with a rether high conversion efficiency (36% in the newest plant), besides coal moulding no measur es have been taken to reduce sulphur emissions. Dust from large point sources in Guangzhou (petro-chemical industry and power generation) are removed with elect rostatic precipitators, which can reach a removal rate of 99.5%. In the future m ore small scale electrictity turbines will be build in order to keep up with the fast growing electricity demand (of more than 20% or 500 MW per year in the pas t 5 years). As energy prices are quit low (for domestic use 0.5 yuan for one kWh and 2.3 yuan for a litre of gasoline, the incentive to use energy more efficien t to more rational is not very high.
The same is trus for water use. At this moment the water price is 0.5 yuan per m 3. Water consumption per day per capita is 0.45 m3, which is the highest in Chin a. Water use in Guangzhou is expected to increase with 5% per year. Waste water discharges are also expected to increase with 5% per year ［this could be 2% per year if drainage of water is to be increased］. Waste water treatment capacity is planned to be extended in view of with the population growth of Guangzhou. At this moment 12% of the domestic waste water is treated with an efficiency of ［ ..%］ for BOD.
The total environmental expenditures in Guangzhou are more than 2% of GDP, but i n this figure also the costs of fuel gasification is incorporated. The environme ntal costs in Guangdong Province are 0.87% of GDP, which is the China average. T hus far no cost calculations (and environmental effect studies) have been made f or alternative policy scenarios.
The environmental policy of Guangzhou incorporates relocation of the pollutant s ources to specific areas outside of the City. Efforts are made to apply newer po llution abatement techniques and to promote efficient use of energy. Proper siti ng is aimed at in locating the so-called first, second and third industrial cate gories. New enlarged and reconstructed projects and facilities pass through and Environmenal Impact Assessment, including suggestions for pollution prevention t echniques. The government urges seriously polluting enterprises to control pollu tion in a short time: imposing high pollutant discharge fees on enterprises that discharge pollutions above the existing national standards. Also Admission Cert ificates for pollutant discharge are issued to enterprises that are the main pol luters. Some of the policies are tentative. For example, some enterprises, espec ially power plants which are burning coal, reduce sulpurous diocide emissions by increasing the height of the stacks. Although these countermeasures can abate l ocal pollution, is cannot solve long-term and profound problems (such as acidifi cation, climate change). Furthermore, it may affect the surrounding areas.
For long rage problems, such as acidification and climate change, an environment al policy strategy will have to be designed in cooperation with other regions an d the national government (that plays key role in the definition of minimum stan dards and of fuel taxes and pollution fees).
Emissions of energy related substances like SO2 and NOx could easily be doubled in the next 10 year. Only to stabilize emissions at the current level new indust rial plants, power plants and vehicles would have to be 75% cleaner than the cur rent plants and vehicles. For emission reductions relatively expensive best avai lable technologies such as flue gas desulphurization, coal-gasification and cata lytic reduction would be necessary in all new plants and vehicles. The faster en ergy use will grow the higher the pollution abatement costs will be if one also wants to improve the environmental quality and reduce long term environmental ri sks to ecosystems.
Recommendation
It is recommended that alternative scenarios for energy use, energy prices, fuel mix, traffic planning and application of abatement techniques are developed in order to assess the costs and environmental effects of such policy alternatives. In order to curb increasing water use and waste water discharges comparable wat er-policy alternatives are to be developed (as is proposed in the Dongjiang Rive r Project).
On the basis of such a comprehensive scenario study, costs and effects of altern ative policies can be assessed. This could be the basis for rational environment al planning and priority setting. Preferably such scenarios are to be developed in cooperation with the planning department and the departments responsible for energy planning, traffic planning and agriculture and industry, as to incorporat e all participants in the policy discussions into the planning process. Because in a number of cases the national government is responsible for the use of certa in instruments (such as discharge fees and energy prices), it is recommended tha t representatives of the national government participate in such a policy proces s. The risk of limiting the scenario-study to one region izs that much emphasis is given to local and visible environmental problems, while long range problems and "future" problems that are caused by a gradual depletion of resources and ac cumulation of pollutants in the environment are not taken into account. Water pr oblems can only be solved when all provinces in a catchment area work together t o find a solution that is acceptable for all.
Literature
Mark Barrett, Environmental impacts of fossil fuels, in K.V.Ramani. Peter Hills and Grace George (eds), Burning Questions, Environmental Limits to Energy Growth in Asian-Pacific Countries during the 1990s, WWF, ［1993］
National Report of the Peoples Republic of China on Environment and Developmen t, China Environmental Science Press, Beijing, 1992［to be checked］
Shen Longhai and Liu Lujun, Energy development and environmental protection; dua l challenges for China, in :K.Y.Ramani. Peter Hills and Grace George(eds), Burni ng Questions, Environmental Limits to Energy Growth in Asian-Pacific Countries d uring the 1990, WWF, ［1993］
Qu Geping, Chinas dual-thrust energy strategy, economic development and enviro nmental protection, in: Energy policy, June 1992, p500-506
World Resource Institute, China, in:World Resources 1994-95
Fig2.1 GDP development Guangzhou
Fig2.3 Vehicel stock Guangzhou
3.EMISSIONS
3.1 Emission of air pollutants
For the city of Guangzhou emission inventories have been made for a number of po llutants, see tables with general data in appendix I. Emission estimates are cal culated using statistical information on industrial activities and emission fact ors according to the standard procedures provided by NEPA. Validation of the emi ssion data by direct measurements of concentrations in exhaust gases has only be en done for one of the major point sources (Huangpu Power Plant). Data presented in Appendix I refer to 1992. The increase in energy consumption during the last years, leads to a steady increase in SO2 emissions. It is expected that until 2 000 SO2 emissions will increase with approx. 6.4% per year. NOx and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions will sharply increase in the near future due to the strong increa se in the number of cars (20%/year).
The NOx emissions for 1988 given by Qin and Chan① are probably strongly underes timated. Recent extimates (1992) for the Huangpu Power Plant alone give an emiss ion of 38 kton/year. For Shanghai NOx emissions from industrial and domestic fue l combustion have been extimated to be 127 kton/year for the base year 1983. Ass uming a similar emission density per capita for Guangzhou and assuming a traffic contribution of 22%② tatal NOx emissions are estimated to be 165 kton/year.
The major source of SO2 emissions is the industrial combustion of sulphur-contai ning coal and oil. Largest point source in the city is the Huangpu Power Plant w ith a total capacity of 1,000 MW; SO2 emission of this plant is 58 kton/year.
For the city and its surrounding area a gridded emission inventory (reference ye ar 1987) is available with a spatial resolution of 2×2km for SO2, NOx, CO and d ust. The large changs in emissions makes an update for a more recent year necess ary.
3.1.2 Emissions in Guangdong
The consumption of coal in Guangdong in 1988 and 1992 increased from 18.2 Mton t o 25.9 Mton respectively. Oil consumption increased in the same period from 3.3 Mton to 4.2 Mton. The sulphur content for coal and oil is 1% and 1.4% respective ly. The cement industry uses 15% of the coal. On the basis of this information S O2 emissions can be computed to be about 440 and 110 kton for coal and oil respe ctively. Therefore, the total SO2 emission in the region is 550 kton in 1992. Fu rthermore it was stated that 60% of the regional emissions originate from combus tion power generation.
In Guangdong six large point sources are located as described in chapter 6. One of these sources that was visited by the expert group, is Huangpu. During the vi sit it was stated that 58 ktons of SO2 were emitted by the power plant in 1993, that the sulphur content of the coal used by the power plant is 1.04% and that o f oil 1.46%.
①Qin Y.and Chan L.Y.(1993) Traffic source emission and street level air polutio n in urban areas of Gangzhou, South China (P.R.C) Atmospheris Environment 27B, 2 75-282.
②UNEP(19..) Urban pollution in megacities of the world. WHO and UNEP.
It was not established what the emissions of SO2 are in the other five large poi nt sources. Therefore in the following tentative calculations, assumptions are m ade. It is assumed that emissions of the other five power plants range between 3 0 and 50 ktons. The consequence of this assumption is that total emission from a ll six large point sources in Guangdong ranges between 208 ktons and 308 ktons. This is 37% and 56% respectively in relation to the total SO2 emissions of 530 k tons, established in the previous section. As metioned above, Chinese experts cl aim 60% of SO2 emissions in the region to be attributable to power generation.
These magnitudes seem to be different from the shares which are established for the whole of China. Chinese SO2 emissions are about 18000 ktons of which about 3 ,000 kton is allocated to the generation of electricity①, i.e. only about 16%. If shares of large point source emissions in Guangdong (assumed in the above to be ranging between 208 and 308 ktons) total SO2 emissions in the region could ex ceed 1,000 ktons.
There seems to be a considerable gap between the contribution to SO2 emissions f rom electricity generation in China and Guangdong respectively. It is recommende d to pay further attention to SO2 emissions from other sources than those establ ished in relation to the six large point sources in Guangdong.
For the province emission data for NOx, HC, CO and dust have not been discussed during the task force meeting.
3.1.3 Other air pollutants
Emission data on other components are not known both for the province and the ci ty. In the city relatively high levels of heavy metal emissions can be expected from traffic (leaded petrol) and the (metallurgic) industry. When the compositio n of coal and oil is known, the heavy metals emissions related to the combustion of coal and oil can
①Ramani K.V.Peter Hills, Grace George(1993), Burning Questions: Environmental l imits to energy growth in Asian Pacific Countries during the 1990s, Asian and Pa cific D evelopment Centre. Pesarian Duta, P.O.Box 12224, 50770 Kual Lumpur.
be estimated according to procedures described in the literature.①
In the province the usage of pesticides form an important source of air toxies.
Date on ammonia and the greenhouse gases (co2, N2O, CH4) have not been presented during the meeting.
3.1.4 Emission standards
National emissions standard are set by NEPA for the following sectors:
industry: SO2
traffic: gasoline cars: CO,HC
diesel: smoke
motorcycles: CO,HC
No emission standards are set for NOx.
3.1.5 Recommendations
- develop emission standards for NOx for large combustion sources and traffic
- prepare emissions inventories for NOx both for Guangzhou and Guangdong
- emission inventories for Hydrocarbons (HC) and methane should be made separat ely
- make a first survey of heavy metals emissions using the available statistical data on industrial activities, consumption of leaded pelrol etc. and emission f actors (see for example the PARCOM-ATMOS emission manual① for European emission factors).
3.2 Emissions to surface water
The river and water systems of Guangzhou and the Province of Guangdong are conta minated by industry and urban domestic waste water, as well as by agriculture an d cultivation.
Locations and information about waste water discharges of important
①van der Most P.E.J.and Veldt C. (1992) Emission factor manual PARCOM-ATMOS. Re port 92-235, TNO, Delft, the Netherlands.
point sources of pollution (industries) are available for the urban area of Guan gzhou. This also aplies for domestic waste water.
In the period 1988-1990, the city developed a master plan for water pollution co ntrol for the municipality. The sewage treatment facilities are not sufficient a t the moment. In 1992 only 11.7% of municipal waste water was treated (0.3 Mm3/d ay). An existing sewage plant is being expanded and a new plant, with a capacity of 0.7Mm3/day, will be ready within 5 years.
Most of the larger sources of industrial waste water are treated separately. In 1992 about 60% of the treated waste water met the emission standards. From the m ain industrial activities (food production, textile, machinery, eletronics, refi nery, paper, chemical and metallurgical) more than 17 Mm3 per day is discharged.
The total discharge of waste water is expected to increase by 2% on an average a nnual basis. ［In view of the increase in drinking water supply (5% per year) th is seems to be a rather low figure.］ By 2005, it will be 34.6% more than that o f 1990.
It is to be expected that a number of municipal waste water treatment plants wit h a total daily handling capacity of 2.2 Mm3 will be necessary in the mear futur e.
3.3 Solid wastes
3.3.1 Industrial solid wastes
In the Guangdong Province the amount of solid waste generated by industry has gr own from 10.8 Mton in 1980 to 17.6 Mton in 1992①. The percentage of reuse incre ased from a low 21% to about 48%. The main part however, still is "stored"; whic h probably means deposited at the industrial sites. No information is available about the exact storage locations, the storage conditions and the possible leaka ge of substances to the surroundings. The amount of industrial waste that is lan dfilled under controlled conditions has decreased considerably from 0.4 Mton in 1985 to 0.2 Mton in 1992. The available information on industrial waste generati on is far from enough to assess the state of affairs at the provincial level.
①China statitical yearbook, 1992
The information available about industrial solid waste generation in the urban a rea of Guzngzhou provides a good first impression of the magnitude of the waste problem. The total amount of generated industrial waste is about 3.2 Mton/a. The reuse percentage is higher than the provincial average:65.7% in 1992. This leav es about 1.1 Mton/a with the destination landfill. ［This number is not in confo rmity with the provincial numbers.］
In the Guangzhou report 4 categories of industrial waste are distinguished: haza rdous organic and inorganic and non-hazardous organic and inorganic. It is recom mended to use the definitions of the Basel Convention (UN) if this is not alread y the case.
Hazardous waste is registered, treated and finally disposed of in specially desi gnated pits. The locations of these pits should not be too close to rivers in ca se of seepage of leachate to the river. The regualtions concerning these disposa l facilities have been set at the national level. Whithin the Guangzhou area the re are no special hazardous waste disposal facilities.
The major part of industrial waste that has to be landfilled at the moment is fo rmed by the residues of power generation (about 50% of 1.5 Mton/a) and metallurg ical wastes.
With an increase in power production of 500 MW/a on top of the 2,600 MW already produced in Guangzhou City, and under the assumption that the increase will be i n coal fired plants, the residues from power generation by coal combustion will increase from about 1.5 Mton/a to about double this amount by the year 2000. The assumption in the reports is that 50% will be reused, but it can be doubted tha t there will be enough reuse possibilities in time for this quantity of coal res idues. Part of a possible solution might be that the production of building mate rials with these residues is taken up by the power producers themselves. Care ha s to be taken that the products made with these residues meet leaching atandards (especially for heavy metals). It is also known that some of the coal that is u sed has a rather high percentage of radiative material. This is concentrated in the residues when coal is burnt. An assessment of the risks is necessary when re use of residues as building bricks is considered in order to avoid future health problems. Aother part of the solution is already mentioned in the Ammual Report of the Industry Pollution Control Strategy & Policy Study for Guangzhou: use as hes in large infrastructural projects.
The remaining coal residues have to be landfilled. Space however is becoming mor e and more scarce in the direct vicinity of Guangzhou so it is advisable to push for increased reuse of coal residues.
For the province the coal fired power generation at the moment is about 6,100 MW . This capacity will increase to about 40,000 MW in the year 2010. Using the sam e waste factor as in Guangzhou City this leads to an estimate of coal residues o f about 3 Mton/a for the province as a whole; increasing to 20 Mton/a in 2010. I t will be a major effort to find reuse possibilities for such quantities. Landfi lling will rapidly become impossible in view of the scarcity of suitable places in the vicinity of the power plants. Transportation over large distances is expe nsive. A comprehensive assessment of this item at the provincial level is recomm ended.
With the industrial development that is planned in the City of Guangzhou a subst antial number of industries will contribute to the solid waste problem. Some of the development regions plan to house industries with substantial waste generati on. The EIAS needed for these factories have to include an assessment of the w aste generation and have to contain solutions for reuse and/or final disposal ba sed on best available techniques.
In the Guangzhou area only a treatment plant has been noticed for organic wastes for a limited capacity. A treatment plant with a capacity of 1000 ton/day has b een planned in the south-eastern part of the area in 1998.
3.3.2 Domestic and commercial waste
Generally speaking domestic waste does not form a serious problem in rural areas . Therefore this aspect will only be considered for the more densely populated a rea of Guangzhou.
Every day 11,000 men collect in total 3,300 tons of waste in the City of Guangzh ou. This means about 1.25 Mton/a collected from the urban areas of the city or 2 00kg per person per year (which about 50% of the domestic waste generation per p erson in the Netherlands). Next to this collected waste there exists intensive r ecycling of materials. When the prosperity of the population increases-as in one of the goals of the development schemes for China-it is to be expected that the recycling will become less efficient unless the municipal government provides e conomic incentives to keep this intact.
The annual increase in the amout of domestic waste over the past years in about 10%. It is predicted that by the year 2000 the amount will be doubled.
At the moment these wastes are landfilled at two sites in the urban area: one in the northern part with a capacity of 2.8 Mm3 which started in 1992. This site i s used at a rate of 1,400 ton/day, which means that in can only be used for abou t 4 more years. The second one is in the southeastern part of the area. The pres ent capacity is 1.7 Mm3 which will be enlarged this year to 4.2(see also map in Annex 3.3.1). At this site 1200 to 1,400 ton/day is landfilled. Anew site is pla nned for 1997 east of the Guangzhou urban area.
In the past a large part of these wastes were inorganic (domestic coal burning). The composition has rapidly been changed because of the use of propane and elec tricity in households. ［The heat value now 1,200 kcal/ton makes it advisable to look for incineration as an alternative for the landfilling that is used at pre sent.］ This is already under consideration in the city. Energy recovery at the incineration plant (12MW) is a small part of the power generation system of the city. In Europe and the USA incineration plants have caused dioxin problems. At the moment techology is available enough to prevent this.
4. AIR QUALITY
4.1 Introduction
All over the world is was for a long time believed that air pollutants were dilu ted to negligible low concentrations. However, measurements taken during the las t decades have shown this belief to be erroneous. Air pollution may lead to a va riety of adverse environmental effects on local, regional and even global scale. Distances over which an air pollutant is transported depends a. o on its atmosp heric residence time (determined by deposition losses and chemical conversion), the meteorological situation and the release height. Building higher stacks may bring some local relief but it shifts pollution roblems to more regional scales.
One pollutant may play an important role in a range of environmental effects. Fo r example, pollutants originating from the usage of fossil fuels (sulphur dioxid e, nitrogen oxides) together with ammonia, mainly originating from agricultural practice, cause majot problems including acidification (chapter 6), eutrophicati on and contamination of soil and surface waters. This may have strong consequenc es for the diversity and conditions of ecosystems including forests and crops.
Annex 3.3.1
In combination with hydrocarbons (more commonly called Voaltile Organic Compound s, VOC) the nitrogen oxides are also involved in the photochemical formation of ozone at tround level. Ozone is a highly reactive gas which cause health effects and damage to agricultural crops and natural vegetation.
4.2 Urban air quality in Guangzhou
A growing number of people in China live in urban areas: in 1990 the urban popul ation was estimated to be 297 million (approx. 26% of the total population), an increase of nearly 90 million since 1982. Many urban activities (e.g. industrial production, power generation, traffic) are accompanies by emissions into air yi elding elevated concentrations of pollutants. This is especially important when a large number of activities are concentrated together, as in an urbanized regio n.
Urban air pollution is the source of a range of problems: health risks mostly as sociated with inhalation of gases and particles, accelerated deterioration of bu ilding materials, damage to buildings and to vegetation within and near the citi es. For an assessment of these problems and for regulatory decision making it is necessary to characterize urban air quality by using tools like monitoring. dat a analysis and modelling.
4.2.1 Monitoring system
In the City of Guangzhou an automatic monitoring system is installed. This syste m consists of one central station and 12 sub-stations. Measurements of SO2, COx, CO, HC, O3 and TSP are carried out on a semi-continuous way (15 days/monty; 24h/ day). Next to the automatic network, there is a manual by operated network cover ing the whole city. This manual system consists of 37 stations; measurements are made of SO2, NOx, CO, TSP, sulhate, dust deposition and heavy metals in dust fa ll. In general 80 samples (every season four samples per day during five days) a re analyzed. Sampling and analysis methods are in agreement with the standard pr ocedures of NEPA.
4.2.2 Ambient levels
Guangzhou is located in the southern subtropical zone and has a marine monsoon c limate. Meteorological conditions (annual averaged wind speed of 1.9m/s, relativ erly low mixing height) are not favourable for dispersion. Concentration in the city will largely be determined by emissions in the urban area as is indicated b y analyses of the monitoring data. However, during spring and summer the prevail ing wind direction is south east and concentrations may be influenced by emissio ns in Hong Kong. A more quantitative insight in the origin of the pollution leve ls in Guangzhou and of the contribution of the various economical sectors can be obtained by application of atmospheric transport models+appendix 4.2.Models can also be used to quantify the impact of the urban emissions on the air quality i n Guangdong Province. According to the information obtained during the meeting, the input data required for such model studies are available.
4.2.2.1 Concentrations in air
The averaged concentration of SO2 measured at all monitoring stations increased from approx. 60μg/m3 in 1983 to approx. 100μg/m3 in 1990. In the more rural pa rts of the city yearly values of approx. 40μg/m3 are measured. In the industria l/commercial districts levels are ［150］-170μg/m3 indicating that the third cl ass AQ standard (see appendix) is violated. The WHO guidelines of 40-60μm/m3 is exceeded at nearly all stations.
NOx concentrations, averaged over the city, are doubled during the last decade: increasing from 60μg/m3 in 1983 to 100μg/m3 in 1990. Yearly averaged concentra tions in streets may be as high as 340μg/m3, the third class NOx short-term sta ndard of 300μg/m3 is frequently exceeded in a number of streets.
The annual averaged CO concentration (1993 data), averaged over the whole city i s 2.8 mg/m3, highest concentrations are found in traffic areas (4.9mg/m3) wherea s in more residential and commercial areas yearly concentrations rangs from 1.2 to 3.4 mg/m3. Effects of CO are associated with the short-term exposure to high concentrations. WHO guidelines are therefore defined as maximum 1h or 8h average d concentrations. Based on the yearly averaged data, an evaluation of the exceed ances of CO guidelines is not possible. Timeseries of CO were not presented duri ng the meeting but it is expected that CO, similar to NOx, has shown an increase during the last ten years.
For TSP and yearly averaged value of 280μg/m3 was reported as city averaged val ue in 1992 which indicated that the WHO guidelines are exceeded in the whole cit y. The concentrations of TSP showed no clear trends during the last years. As a result of the growing dust emissions from traffic and the introduction of electr ostatic precipitators in industry, an increase in the contribution of smaller, i nhalable particles is expected.
Data on ozone concentrations are scarce. There are indications that the third cl ass standard for ozone of 200 g/m3 is violated. The forecasted increase in NOx a nd VOC emissions (e.g. because of the growth in the number of vehicles) can be e xpected to increase the ozone production. This might present a seriour problem t o Guangzhou and the downwind areas.
Analyses of heavy metal fraction in dust fall is reported but measuring data hav e not been made available for this report. A first survey, including emission es timates and application of atmospheric transport model has to be made in order t o assess the relevance of heavy metal pollution.
4.2.2.2 Concentrations in precipitation
In southern China acid deposition is a growing problem. In the city measured pH values are low (4.2-4.4); in the provinces the region over where low pH values a re measured is increasing.
Research done in USA and Europe indicated that determination of the total load o f sulphur and nitrogen could considerably improve the description of acidificati on of soil and surface water. The total load of S and N compound is the sum of t he wet deposition (= concentration in rain times the amount of precipitation) an d dry deposition (= deposition velocity time air concentration). Close to major source areas dry deposition gives the most important contribution to the total d eposition; in remote areas, wet deposition will dominate. Acidification is furth er discussed in chapter 6.
4.2.2.3 Indoor air quality
Data on indoor air quality has not been discussed during this Tash Force Meeting . Indoor air pollution is highly relevant when the human exposure to air polluti on is considered and it should be included in future work on human health risk a nalysis.
4.2.3 Effects
4.2.3.1 Health effects
Studies on the effect of air pollution on health of the citizens of Guangzhou we re not available for this report. The current air pollutions levels exceed the W HO long-term guidelines for SO2 and TSP; Although no information on daily levels of SO2 and TSP has been presented, it is expected that they exceed the short-te rm air quality guidelines. The observed levels are associated with chronic pulmo nary disease in ageing populations and in susceptible individuals. The presented data is insufficient to estimate the increase in morbidity for respiratory dise ases and mortality.
4.2.3.2 Exposure of materials, buildings to air pollution
Air pollution in urban and industrial areas increases the deterioration of many buildings and construction materials. For the city of Chongqing economic losses caused by air pollution has been estimated to 3.2% of GDP of which 0.8% must be attributed to material damage. When this number is applied to Guangzhou, an econ omical loss of approx. 570 million yuan is estimated. However, as the air pollut ion climate in Guangzhou not as bad as in Chongqing this number might be an over estimation.
4.3 Air quality in Guangdong
In the major cities in Guangdong SO2, NOx and TSP are measured. In general it ca n be stated that Guangzhou is the most polluted region in the province. SO2 conc entrations in the other cities range from 12g/m3 in Zhuhai to 102g/m3 in Shaogua n. The lower limit of the WHO guideline value of 40g/m3 is exceeded in Shaoguan and Fushan.
In the city of Shenzhen a NOx concentration of 108g/m3, comparable to the concen tration in Guangzhou is measured. In the remaining cities the peported NOx data do not exceed 70g/m3. TSP concentrations exceed the WHO guideline value of 90g/m 3 in all cities; in Jiangmen, Meizhao and Zhaoqin a threefold exceedance is meas ured.
The concentration in air and precipitation in the more rural areas will not only be the result of emission in the province itself but also by emissions in surro unding regions. In the western part of the province impact of emissions around W uzhou is expected; emissions from Hongkong will be transported over the central part of the provine.
4.4 Recommendations
1) Representativeness of data from the manual network: which study uncertaintie s are introduced by the discontinuous sampling procedure (per year total samplin g time is 80 hours or less); study the intercomparability of manual and automati c network.
2) Evalutation of dustfall measurements: how are these measurements used in ass essment studies? Deposition of dust depends on meteorological conditions, the si ze distribution of the aerosol and the air concentration. Deposition to aritific ial surfaces is generally not a good measure for deposition on soil or surface w ater. More (effect-relevant) information will be obtained by direct measurement of PM10 concentrations; air quality standards are set for PM10, see Annex4.2.
3) Re-evaluation of the precipitation data: analyses of the wet deposition flux es of sulphate, nitrate and ammonia.
4) First survey of heavy metals concentrations using emissions estimates and tr ansport models.
5) Initiate exploratory measurements of ozone.
6) Monitoring, data analysis, modelling etc. constitute fundamental building bl ocks for assessment of problems and regulatory decision making. Therefore, a ser ies of training workshops to train techers who will rapidly propagate relevant i nformation and technology is advisable.
7) Application of atmospheric transport and dispersion models for SO2 and NOx.
+ check on the consistency between emission estimates and measuring data
+ assessment of the contribution to ambient levels of various economical sector s
+ evaluate the impace of emission in Guangzhou on the province and vice-versa
Appendix 4.1
Table 1. Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standards (in g/m3)
Appendix 4.2
The CAR model
The CAR model (Calculation of Air pollution from Road traffic) is a simple param etrized model for the determination of air quality alongside roads, including st reet canyons, in cities. In the Netherlands, the model supports the implementati on of air quality guidelines decrees under the Air Pollution Act by provincial a nd municipal authorities.
By analysis of measured concentrations in streets and an extensive program of wi nd tunnel experiments the relation between emissions and concentration was inves tigated for a large number of configurations which differ with respect to dimens ions, distances and shapes of streets, its buildings and trees. Based on these s tudies parameters with the largest influence on the concentrations were delected . A decision was made to distinguish five type of streets, see Figure 4.1.
In the CAR model the calculations are performed in the following way:
1) Calculation of the local street emission from speed-class-dependent emission factore for light duty and heavy duty cars, the traffic density (number of cars per day) and the fraction of heavy duty traffic in the street.
2) Calculation of the street specific concentration from the traffic emissions and the street-type specific dispersion parameter which was empirically determin ed based on the wind tunnel experiments. The value of this dispersion parameter depends on the selected street type.
3) Calculation of street level air quality by adding a city background concentr ation (e.g. the upwind concentration in a more rural area).
A more detailed description of the CAR model and examples of application of the model for the dutch situation is given in: Eerens H.C., Sliggers C.J. and van de n Hout K.D. (1993) The CAR model: the dutch method to determine city street air quality. Atmospheric Environment 27B, 389-399.
Preliminary calculations with the CAR model are made for three streets in Guangz hou, see Figure 4.2 and 4.3. The measured NOx axd CO concentrations and informat ion on traffic density, street configu. ration and emissions are taken from Qin, Y. and Kot, S.C. (1993) Dispersion of vehicular emission in street canyons, Gua ngzhou, South China, Atmospheric Environment, 27B, 283-291. Although not all nec essary input data could be extracted from this paper, the model performs well in predicting the air pollution levels in different types of street canyons in Gua ngzhou. Using the available road maps and traffic intensity maps for the city, t he model could be applied to assess air quality in Guangzhous busy streets.
Figure 4.1 Street types and their dilution function as defined in the CAR model
Figure 4.2 CAR model results for 3 streets in Guangzhou, CO(China)
Figure 4.2 CAR model results for 3 streets in Guangzhou, NOx(China)
5. SUSTAINABLE MULTIFUNTIONAL USE OF WATER RESOURCES
5.1 Introduction and problem statement
The numerous rivers in Guangdong have large flow rates, little silt content, lon g high-water seasons and wide hydro-electric power potentials. The Pearl River d elta consists of alluvial deposits, has many water ways and fertile soils. The P ear River system drains half of GUangdongs total area.
Today, the Province of Guangdong and especially the City of Guangzhou and its su rrounding urban area is facing enormous environmental problems, caused byits hig h population densities and its rapid economic development. This puts a high pres sure on the water systens. The river and water systems of Guangzhou are contamin ated by industry and urban domestic waste water, as well as agriculture and cult ivation. Because Guangzhou is located at a crossroads of different rivers, with their junctions in its urban area, flowing southwards as the Pearl River to Deep Bay and the South Chinese Sea, it has a tremendous potential impact on the aqua tic environment in the whole Pearl River delta. The water is used by different, often conflicting, interests like population (water supply and waste water), ind ustry, navigation, power generation and irrigation.
At the moment, the area has a.o.a problem with its drinking water supply because of pollution of surface water resources.
To be able to serve all water functions in the region (alsodownstream of Guangzh ou), and to safeguard these functions for the future, a stage of sustainable mul tifunctional use of the water has to be reached. This can only be achieved by in tegrated water management, taking into account all relevant factors and their mu tual relationships. The best way to implement this concept is to evaluate all fu nctions and their requirements as to water quantities, water levels and water qu ality at the river basin scale, and to describe the situation along the line of pressure-state-impact and societal response (Figure 5.1). Priority setting by th e authorities determines the allowable use of the water system by the different functions. Linking different river basins produces the picture for a whole regio n.
The above statement implies that optimal sustainable solutions with regard to wa ter problems can only be achieved at a river basin scale and that solutions for smaller units within a river basin (like cities) can only be reached within that context. A proper tool to analyze and evaluate the water related problems in a river basin and to move to sustainable water use, is the integrated assessment m ethodology as described in an annex.
Potential outcomes of applicating this methodology are:
- overview of functions and furctional requirements to the water system;
- coherent information on the state of the water system;
- identification of problem areas (bottle necks);
- starting points for sustainable multifunctional use.
The Dongjiang River project that is being carried out at the moment is conceptua lly an excellent example of this approach and could be a model for other river b asin studies in China.
In the next sections, a diagnosis will be given as to available and essential in formation for generating a status report on the water systems in the Province of Guangdong. A lumped approach will be followed rather than a detailed evaluation as to single factors. The analysis aims to produce a first impression, based on information available to the expert team.
5.2 Water use and state of the water systems in the municipality of Guangzhou
- Water quality
In 1974, the city began systematic monitoring of the aquatic environment. Ten mo nitoring sites are in operation since then. The network was optimized in 1988, w hich resulted in nine sites (tree are national montioring sites). Shortly after 1988 six monitoring sites were added along the Dong River. The water pollution p attern is affected by tidal effects and type of season(wet or dry). The monitori ng results show that organic pollution is very important. Trend analysis since 1 985 points out tha NH3-N and DO were the parameters which most frequently did no t meet the standards.
A clear picture exists of the impact of the city of Guangzhou on the water quali ty of the Pearl River because upstream, urban and downstream information is avai lable. Dynamic effects caused by the season and the tides can be seen in the dat a. Quite a long distance of the first part of the Guangzhou River section has tu rned dark and smells badly because of lack of dissolved oxygen. At the sites far from the dows tream area the water quality meets the highest quality standard d ue to the strong tidal influence.
Water pollution with heavy metals and hazardous organics is not considered a ser ious problem anymort, due to the tight control on the industrial pollution sourc es of these pollutants. Compared to 1985, the discharged heavy metal. pollution s by industries decreased substantially. However in the opinion of the expert te am, a decreasing trend of heavy metal concentrations cannot be seen in the perio d 1989-1992. Moreover Hg and Cd concentrations seem to be rather high. Recently, the city put much effort in the monitoring and control of hazardous organic pol lutants. The concentrations have been foud to be not alarming. ［This cannot be confirmed by the Expert Team due to lack of information.］ Information concernin g Cl(important for drinking water supply purposes), P(with regard to eutrophicat ion) exists through monitoring. For Cl, no national standard exists. Lacking inf ormation concerns pollutants from diffuse sources (mainly pesticides). Occurrenc e of pesticides can be expected because 72.3% of the landuse of the municipality of Guangzhou is agricultureal. ［Also lacking is information on the microbiolog ical water quality. Finally, neither information on the quality of river sedimen ts nor no ground water quality is available.］
- Effects
Aquatic organisms seem to be monitored as well, ［Information on effects was not available.］
- Water quantity
Information is available on rainfall amounts, evaporation and river discharge. I n 1988 Guangzhou was the second largest in total water consumption and per capit a consumption nationally. In recent years, water supply increased by about 5%. T he ruban areas of Guangzhou are supplied with surface water (population, industr y as well as irrigation) from eight water plants supplying 3.08 Mm3 per day. Ind ustrial water supply amounts to about 5.4Mm3 per day. The amount of water supply per capita per year is the lowest in China. The city does not have much water r esources from the localities. 70% of the supplied water comes from Xi Channel an d its upperstream of Liuxi River. The drinking water resources are protected. Qu antitatively spoken, the surface water resources are sufficient, because of the location of Guangzhou in a network of rivers, but the city is facing shortage of drinking water supply because of water pollution.
Lacking information concerns especially the ground water (aquifers, flowdirectio ns, flowrates) and the interaction with surface water.
- Other functions
The river system is rather intensively used for transport (4.7 Mtons are transpo rted per year to and from Guangzhou; for the whole region this is about 25 Mtons per year). This transport means a potential risk to other functions like drinki ng water supply.
Also hydropower and irrigation are important water functions, that also influenc e drinking water supply.
- Perspecties and recommendations
As industry and city are developed further, the environment will suffer from a h igher pressure. The fast growing economy and progress of science and technology will provide the environment with economic and technological instruments for its protection and improvement, But, at the same time, the expectation is, that wat er pollution will remain a problem in the future. Water quality will decline if the plan is not followed to build a number of municipl waste water treatment pla nts.
The future water demand has been estimated to 3.8 Mm3 per year in 1995. The muni cipal government has planned to develop new water supply sources in the south of the city. Sustainable supply from surface water resources can only be achieved if substantial extra capacity for treatment of sewage water to prevent pollution with oniganic pollutants becomes available as soon as possible. The water suppl y from the Liuxi River will not be sufficient for the future. Besides demand man agement, the potentials of water supply from ground water may be investigated. T he state and the perspectives of the water in the urban area of Guangzhou have t o be evaluated, with respect to all relevant functions, in the context of the sc ale and the problems of the Pearl River basin, its delta and the coastal zone as a whole.
5.3 Guangdong region and abroad
- River basin approach for management of water resources
As stated in the introduction an integrated approach at river basin scale is nec essary to achieve sustainable multifunctional use of water. Within the Province of Guangdong, the Xijiang, Dongjiang and Beijing are the largest rivers, its dra inage basins are covering the greater part of the province.
For the Dongjiang River basin, and integrated study is being carried out, taking into account quantity and quality of surface water under different water regime s. With the rapid economical and population growth as well as the economic struc ture change from agriculture-dominant to industry-dominant, excessive exploitati on of water resources has led to more and more serious water pollution. Water de mand on the Dongjiang River is increasing rapidly. Without efficient control mea sures, it is expected that sooner ot later the river will face a serious shortag e of fresh water. Based on the project proposal it can be expected that the sudy will provide most of the necessary information for an adequate management plan for the river basin. However, to complete the information and to be able to achi eve optimal solutions with the management plan, the (deep) ground water has also to be taken into account, as a necessary additional water supply resource. Grou nd water, being a potentially reliable and clean source, has to be taken into co nsideration (its occurrence, vulnerability and possibilities for supply from a s tandpoint of sustainability) as a structural factor in the research, planning an d management of the water resources in the river basin. ［Because of lack of any information on ground water issues, it has not been possible for the Expert Tea m to make a first estimate as to the possible quantities for supply.］ It is urg ently recommended to carry out comparable studies for the river basins of the Xi jiang and the Beijiang Rivers, to complete the picture for the whole region and to be able to relate the water quality in the outflow area (the Pearl River delt a and the Deep Bay) to the upstream situation and activities. Only then, a suffi cient and adequate management plan can be formulated to achieve sustainable mult ifunctional use of water, not only in the river basins, but also for the Pearl R iver delta and the linked coastal zone, where wetlands are seriously being threa tened by industrial activities and pollution.①
- Recommendations
For the future it is recommended to study the basins of the large rivers in diff erent provinces and probably even at the national scale in a comparable way, ena bling:
· classifications as to the state of the water systems, the pressures on the e nvironment and the expected future development;
· priority setting in the context of a pollution reduction strategy.
In this context, joining of the UNEP study on global fresh water resources, to b e carried out in the near future, might be worthwhile.
Finally, coordination and exchange of data and expertise between different water research and water policy institutions and departments in a region is absolutel y necessary for a successful accomplishment of integrated river basin studies an d for creating a basis for adequate management plans.
Figure 5.1 A generic environmental management cycle from a systems analysis pers pective
①"Refugees" Flock to Mai Po, Window, May 6,1994.
6. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EMPHASIING ACIDIFICATION
6.1 Introduction
Air pollution compounds lead to a great variety of environmental effects on broa d regional scales. For example, emissions of sulphur diocide, nitrogen oxide and ammonia cause acidification, damaging natural systems and materials including c ultural heritage. Nitrogen oxides and ammonia may cause eutrophication of soils and catchments. Emissions of volatile organic compounds in combination with nitr ogen oxide cause tropospheric ozone which causes health effects. The sources of the emissions causing the wide range of effects are very disperse. Combustion of energy resources such as coal and oil in power plants and in industry is largel y responsible for emissions of acidifying compounds except for ammonia which, fo r example, in Europe is largely due to agricultural practice. Volatile organic c ompounds originate in industrial production processes and from traffic, that als o is the source of nitrogen oxides.
From the information obtained from regional counterparts emphasis is put on acid ification. It was reported① that acid rain occurs in Guangzhou. Therefore this section emphasizes acidification and where appropriate other environmental effec ts are mentiones. A treatment of health effects can be found elsewhere (see chap ter 3).
Basically two kinds of environmental effects can be distinguished, i.e. direct a nd indirect effects. Direct effects occur through direct contact of air pollutan ta (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone) with surfaces (e.g. stems and leav es) of vegetation and materials. Indirect effects are caused as a condsequence o f proliferation of the original pollutants through a number of chemical reaction s in soils and surface waters ultimately leading to (geo-) chemical changes in t he environment which increases the probability of damage. This process may
①Guangzhou group, Pollution control expert sub-committee, International Coopera tion Committee, Environment in Guangzhou, 29 October 1993.
take many years and depending on the dispersion of the pollutantsand the kind o f receptors occurs over broad regional areas. Recently, a risk based scientific methodology based on the concept of direct and indirect effects has been develop ed allowing comprehensive policy assessments of different alternatives of emissi on reduction. This methodology provides tolerable limits of pollutant loads, so called critical loads. A critical olad is a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledg e. The term critical level is used with respect to tolerable limits related to d irect effects of air concentrations.
Information was provided that environmental policy in Guangzhou was based on the assessment of tolerable limits. However it was not established how tolerable li mits are obtained. In the next section an overview of facts is presented includi ng findings on impacts by Chinese experts from Guangzhou. In chapter 3 results a re presented which have been obtained through a project of the World Bank and As ian Development Bank by Chinese experts from the Academy of Sciences and counter parts from elsewhere.
6.2 Methods and data
In Guangzhou, according to the report acid rain was very serious in the spring a nd in the summer of 1986 and 1987. Evidence is provided for a steady decrease of the pH in rain from more than 5.2 to less than 4.4. Indeed this pH is low and i s likely to contribute to a steady decrease of the pH in soils which ultimately may lead to the occurrence of indirect effects. However, developent of soil pH a lso depends on the buffering capacity of soils. The decrease of pH and the annua l increase of the period over which the pH remains low, noted in the report, poi nts to an increase of acidifying pollutants such as SO2 and NOx and/or a decreas e of the emissions and depositions of base cations. It is necessary to obtain a transparent overview of the dispersion of these compounds over Guangzhou as well as over Guangdong in order to establish the full impact of the increase of the pollutants. Chinese experts have mentiones that damage was found to vegetables. It cannot be excluded that this damage is not only due to the indirect effect of acidification. In this context it seems appropriate to assess the possible occu rrence of direct effects of concentrations of pollutants to crop as well as to o ther vegetation. In Table 6.1 critical levels are provided which have been scien tifically established.
Further knowledge of concentrations and depositions of acidifying pollutants, es pecially sulphur dioxide which seems to prevail, and a detailed overview of dama ges and impacts is necessary. In the next section very preliminary results on im pacts② are presented with emphasis on Guangdong. The results are part of a proj ect of acid rain and emissions in Asia of which the deliverable will be an integ rated model quantifying the relationship within and between Asian regions of emi ssions (i.e. sulphur dioxide), transport and impacts. The Research Center for Ec o-environmental Sciences (RCEES) in Beijing is the
②Hetteling J.-P., M.Chadwick, Zhou Dianwu, Quantification of Envirommental effe cts of acid deposition in Asia (in rep., 1994).
Chinese counterpart in this project.
6.3 Preliminary application of critical loads in Guangdong
Figure 6.1 provides a tentative and preliminary overview of critical loads in Gu angdong. The preliminary assessment of critical loads in the region have been ob tained using a low estimate of base cation deposition (BCD). Improved knowledge of the deposition of base cation deposition in the area is required since these compounds contribute to alleviation of acidifying effects. Figure 6.1 shows area s of high sensitivity (between 0 and 200 equivalents ①per hectare) in the north of Guangdong and in dispersed areas around Guangzhou and along the eastern coas t. Sensitive areas (between 200 and 500 eq/ha) cover a wide area within Guangdon g. Areas with moderate or low sensitivity to acidification are dispersed in the north and in the southern peninsula of Guangdong.②
The assessment of the current risk of damage requires knowledge of the depositio n and dispersion of sulphur. For this information is required on(1) total emissi ons in the regions from large point sources as well as from diffuse sources, (2) the dispersion of these emissions within the region and the exported and importe d amounts, and (3) the deposition of acidifying compounds.
Figure 6.2 shows the dispersion of wet WO-24 deposition over Guangdong in 1988. Comparing Figure 6.2 to Figure 6.1 by subtracting the critical loads from the we t deposition provides an indication of the fact that the critical load may be ex ceeded over wide areas in Guangdong. Maximum excess could range beyond 6000 mg/m 3.
In Figure 6.3 the critical load map is shown together with the grographical loca tion of six large point sources (exceeding 300 MW) in
①1 equivalent of acidity per hectare is equal to 0.0016 grams per square meter of sulphur or 4.8 mg per square meter of SO-24 and 0.0014 grams of nitrogen. The unit equivalent is used to allow for summation of different acidifying compound s.
②Information about the project RAINS-ASIA can be obtained from the World Bank, Dr. Jitu Shah, from the Asian Development Bank, McAli Azimi, and from Prof. Zhu Dianwu at RCEES in Beijing.
Guangdong. Three power plant are located around Guangzhou, one in the north and two in the peninsula. From Figure 6.3 it can be seen that the power plant in the north and around Guangzhou are located close to sensitive areas. The two power plants in the south of Guangdong are located in areas which have preliminary bee n identified as less sensitive (higher than 1,000 eq/ha). However, considering t he emissions of these powerplants of which one (Huangpu) is identified as 58,000 ton/a (see chapter 3 on emissions) it is to be expected that the dispersion is wide thus contributing to an increased risk of indirect and direct effects in a broad area of Guangdong.
6.4 Conclusions and recommendations
The major conclusion is that acidification effects occur around Guangzhou and th ere is indication that risk of damage is increasing in Guangdong. For a more def inite conclusion knowledge is required of the distribution of SO2 and NOx deposi tions (wet and dry) over the region including contributions from other regions a round Guangdong. A detailed review of critical loads which have preliminarily be en established in the framework of the RAINS ASIA project needs to be further el aborated in close collaboration with local experts.
An integrated assessment of emissions, air pollution transport, depositions and concentrations of acidifying compounds is respect to allow scientific support of current and future policies with respect to the growth and location of energy c ombustion sources and other pollutant sources such as those of nitrogen oxides. It is not to be excluded that direct effects, possibly including those due to ex cessive ozone concentrations, have an important contribution to the damage which has been identified to agricultural crop (vegetables) in the region. It is reco mmended to establish a detailed overview of the actual environmental effects in the region.
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2 Wet deposition of SO2-4 in Guangdong and Guangxi in 1989
7.RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 General Recommendations
1) Integrated environmental policy
It is recommended not to treat emissions, transport of pollutants and resulting environmental and other effects as independent components. Sources, pollutants a nd effects require a consistent overall integrated analysis of the interrelation ships and the manner by which emissions propagate via air, soil and water into e nvironmental impacts. Dealing with air pollution, water pollution and waste remo val separately could easily lead to suboptimal solutions or even a shift of envi ronmental problems from one compartment or region to the other. An integrated ap proach covering all economic activities leads to more cost-effective solutions. A comprehensive scenario approach can be useful to detect common causes of envir onmental problems and to design consistent environmental policy strategies. Comm on causes are e.g. the squandering of energy in the economy, the fact that mater ial
Figure 6.3
cycles in the
economy are not closed, and that little attention is paid to improvement of the quality of goods and services. Energy conservation and a rational use of energy- intensive products such as fertilizers, plastics and cars are measures that coul d solve several environmental problems at the same time and therefore have a hig h cost-efficiency. So are the prevention and re-use of waste and the redesign of products which will lead to an improvement of the quality (in stead of the qua ntity) of goods and services. In addition to overall integration also linkages w ithin and between socio-economic systems become important for the consistent dev elopment of emission abatement alternatives. The role of economic instruments su ch as taxes, levies and subsidies can be used to obtain an improved uas of resou rces and the application of approriate abatement techniques. Measures which lead to increased energy efficiency, for example, may decrease the necessity to appl y abatement techniques further down the production process. Generic instruments such as energy prices and water prices can be efficient policy tools to implemen t such strategies. Especially in a situation with fast economic growth long-term integrated environmental management plays an important role, because the share of new investments in the total capital stock will be large. When environmental measures are taken early a larger part of the capital stock will consists of(ind ustria) facilities with relatively clean technolygy.
2) Mass balance approach
Potential (irreversible) environmental problems can be detected while preparing mass balances of the economy in a country or region as a whole and follow where materials come from and where they go to. Economic developments will only be sus tainable in the long run when the imput in the economic system will not lead to depletion of (industrial) facilities with relatively clean technology.
2) Mass balance approach
Potential (irreversible) environmental problems can be detected while preparing mass balances of the economy in a country or region as a whole and follow where materials come from and where they go to. Economic developments will only be sus tainable in the long run when the input in the economic system will not lead to depletion of natural resources and when the ourput will not lead to (irreversibl e) accumulation of materials in air, soil and water. A mass balance approach can therefore be an useful instrument in the design of a sustainable development st rategy.
3) Comparative Risk Analy sis in Environmental Priority Setting
Comparative risk analysis is an analytical process and a set of tools by which d ecision-makers can identify their environmental problems with the highest risks. Comparative risk analysis provides a common basis for evaluation the net benefi t and costs of different strategies for reducing or preventing those risks. Thus , comparative risk can provide an importana input to the priority setting and bu dget process when possible reduction and prevention strategies are considered in the context of other relevant non-risk concerns, such as economic viability, te chnological feasibility and social equity.
Currently, comparative risk analysis is considered to be the best available tool to help set environmental risk management priorities. The reason for the succes s of this approach is that it utilizes available data and best professional judg ement to consistently evaluate a set of environmental problems. Once characteriz ed with a common yardstick, a ranking of the risks can be established.
For these reasons, risk managers in all levels of government, industries and com munities must acquire the knowledge and skills to perform comparable risk analys is for cost-effective environmental risk management.
In the context of a dynamic environmental management system comparative risk ana lysis often becomes "integrated scenario assessment" which includes potential fu ture risks and priorities that are expressed into a long-term policy plan, compr ising environmental measures that have to be taken within a period of 10-25 year s.
7.2 Specific Recommendations for the WG on Pollution Control
1) It is recommended that alternative scenarios for energy use, energy prices, fuel mix, traffic planning and application of abatement techniques are developed in order to assess the costs and environmental effects of such policy alternati ves. These scenarios are to be developed in cooperation with the planning depart ment and the departments responsible for energy planning, traffic planning and a griculture and industry, as to incorporate all participants in the policy discus sions into the planning process. Because in a number of cases the national gover nment is responsible for the use of certain instruments (such as discharge fees and energy prices), it is recommended that representatives of the national gover nment participate in such a policy process.
2) It is recommended that comparable water-policy alternatives are being develop ed in order to curb increasing water use and waste water discharges. A plan shou ld be made to construct a number of additional municipal waste water treatment p lants during the coming decade.
3) It is recommended that adequate attention is given to the groudwater resourc es around Guangzhou. Although quantitatively the surface water resources are suf ficient, the city is facing shortage of drinking water supply because of water p ollution and the potential of water supply from ground water could be investigat ed.
4) It is recommended to study the basins of the large rivers that supply Guangd ong and Guangzhou of the necessary water resources. In particular support should be given to the Dongjiang River Project and the Pearl River Delta Study. Care s hould be taken that next to the multifunctional systems approach, enough high qu ality information (including adequate measurement data) is gathered so that a pr oper analysis and evalution can be made of the risks for the environment and the priorities that have to be set by the appropriate authorities. Coordination and exchange of data and expertise between different water research and water polic y institutions and departments in a region(water catchment area) is absolutely n ecessary for a successful integrated river basin study and for the creation of a n adequate water management plan.
5) It is recommended to develop and introduce (national) NOxemmision standards for large combustion sources and traffic.
6) It is recommended to carry out emission inventories for SO2, NOx, Hydrocarbo ns (HC) and methane for both Guangzhou as well as Guangdong.
7) It is recommended to study the representativeness of the data from manual mo nitoring networks within the Province of Guangdong with emphasis on Guangzhou.
8) It is recommended to start measurements of PM10 concentrations because of th eir effect relevance.
9) It is recommended to optimize ［or start］ measurements of hazardous organic pollutants both in water and air especially in Guandzhou and its surroundings.
10) It is recommended to assess the contribution to ambient pollution levels of various economical sectors using transport and dispersion models. For this appl ication several models can be made available.
11) It is recommended to prepare a detailed overview of the actual environmenta l (ecosystem) effects in the region (Province of Guangdong) and establish tolera ble limits (critical loads) at which the risk of damage is decreased. Close coll aboration in existing scientific projects can be considered.
12) It is recommended to establish a framework that enables the successful deplo yment of training workshops. The major subjects of the different workshops that could be held in a group of indicated cities of interest are:
- comparative risk assessment ［see Annex 2］
- policy planing
- monitoring and data analysis (including modelling exercises)
ANNEX 1 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT METHODOLGY FOR RIVER BASINS (DRAFT)
1. Introductions
In past decades a considerable number of river basin studies has been carried ou t, addressing all kinds of water related issues. However, very few studies have been set up with the perspective of multifunctional and sustainable use of all w ater within the river basin. In some cases an overall conceptual framework has b een developed, but there is no general guiding concept on how to select the rele vant interrelated factors within a specific river basin and on how to develop ap propriate solutions as to multifunctional sustainable use of water.
In this document, an integrated assessment methodology for river basins is prese nted. The integration involves the items mentioned in section 2. This methodolog y consists of a stepwise guidance to the assessment of the state and the longter m development of fresh water resources, directed towards multi-functionality and sustainability. With this methodology it is possible to select from the concept ual framework(Figure 1.) the system (i.e. a(sub-)set of interrelated factors),
Figure 1. Conceptual framework
which is relevant to the specific river basin at hand. It is a help to select pr omising scenarios and interventions, based on problem definition and selection o f interactions which are of primary importance to the considered problem.
The main charateristics of the methodology are:
- it has been developed for river basins with conflicting interests;
- it is a generic approach, primarily meant for the river basin scale;
- it is applicable in data poor and data rich situations.
Indicators, operating in a function-related pressure-state-impact framework, are given a prominent role in this methodology, as to characterizing the present si tuation and its evaluation. When this assessment methodology would be applied wi dely, the results might also be used to rank river basins in a region or in the world according to pressures upon its water systems, or to vulnerability of its ground water to pollution, etc..
2. The different steps
The different steps of the approach are described below.
Step 1
The outcome of this step is the water-related physical characterization of the r iver basin, the availability of its water resources and the description of the r eference situation. It is mainly a qualitative evluation.
Hydrological characterization of the river basin
First of all, the hydrological system has to be identified, because it plays a k ey role in the assessment of fresk water resources.
Important aspects to be addressed are:
- determination of river basin boundaries (to be derived from elevation maps or isohypses);
- geomorphological fectures and river morphology characteristics (elevations, r iver dimensions, etc.);
- amouts/pattern of rainfall;
- evapotranspiration;
- surface water: type of hydrograph; to be derived from discharge information;
- ground water: type of subsoil (unconsolidated sediments, hardrock, etc.), aqu ifer type, isohypses and flow directions; to be derived from hydrogeological inf ormation and ground water levels; fresh-brackish water interfaces;
- relationship between river and ground water; to be derived from ground water levels and/or geo-hydrochemical information;
- tidal/coastal impacts/flooding;
- assessment of renewable fresh water resources (at actual landcover).
Hydrochemical and biological characterization
This issue addresses the natural quality of surface water and ground water in th e river basin (determined by fainfall composition, soil properties, natural proc esses and flow regime) and the description and valuation of aquatic ecosystems ( including the coastal zone) without anthropogenic influence (reference situation ).
Pollution is considered as a pressure (step 2).
This step also involves a meta-description of the available information, with an eye to step 3.
Step 2
The output of this step is an overall picture of the demands of all relevant soc io-economic sectors (users and claims) as to the different functions of the wate r in the river basin and a listing of the related requirements and pressures in terms of quantity and/or quality and/or level of the water table.
The current state has to be described here (characterization of current level of pressures) and the future situation at autonomous development ("business as usu al"), per sector.
This includes population, agriculture, ecosystems and conservation, industry and also hydropower dams, etc. For example: the population uses the water as drinki ng water (a function). This implies requirements as to quantity and quality (hea lth aspects). A relevant question, for example, is: Which type and amounts of em issions are or may be produced by agriculture and industry that may cause proble ms for the drinking water function? On the other hand, the population uses the s urface water to discharge waste water (a pressure) which may have its influence on the water quality if it is not purified (state and impact). Water abstraction means also the use of a portion of the water resources. In general, agricultura l claims can be expressed in terms of quantity, quality and water levels. Impact s concern the use of a portion of the water resources and sometimes water qualit y (diffuse water pollution in case of using pesticides, for example). Industry u ses water for production processes or for cooling purposes. In the first case, t he water has to meet certain quality standards. The impacts can be expressed in terms of quantity (claim to water resources) and quality (emission of waste wate r in cases of absence or insufficient purification or discharge of water with a higher temperature).
Also, anthropogenic impacts that play a role but connot be influenced at the riv er basin level have to be addressed here (acidification, potential climate chang e and related impacts on the hydrological system, etc.).
A first indication of potential problem areas can be obtained by overlaying the availability figures from step 1 and the users/claims and their quantitative req uirements and impacts from step 2. For example, a comparison of renewable fresh water resources with the current and/or claimed use of fresh water (different us ers) shows wherther there are, or may arise, problems in this area.
Step 3
This step consists of the assessment of the physical boundaries and the selectio n of major issues to be addressed (together called the system), the structure of the system and its quantification.
Systems definition
This is a discriminating ordering step. Based on site specific information (step s 1 and 2) and the chosen objective (the assessment of state and future of fresh water resources), the total system of interrelated factors to be investigated h as to be selected, to be described as pressure-state-impact-chains (see Figure 5 .1). Basic questions here are: Which sectors and functions are taken on board? W hich temporal and spatial scales are going to be applied? Which schematizations are chosen?
Starting-point here is the own responsibility of the authorities of the river ba sin. Its their business to decide upon which interests they take on board and to set priorities in this area. The integrated assessment methodology enables th em to make informed decisions and provides them with the proper tools. In this r espect, even sustainability is a relative notion.
Systems identification and diagnosis
Systems identification is the study of the structure and the functioning of a sy stem. It includes the analysis and quantification of the different pressure-stat e-impact-response chains (called sub-systems) and their interrelationships. The relationships within a specific chain can be described in two ways (two types of models);
* a mathematical description (formulation of systems equations)
* empirical (if no systems equation is, or can be, applied).
Identification of required datasets has to cover all parameters, necessary to qu antify the pressure-state-effect-chains such as soil characteristics to quantify ground water flow, hydraulic properties to quantify river flow, etc.. The selec ted system dictates which data are needed and how to use them.
The output of this step is the quantitative description of the current situation and the future situation at autonomous development (given the actual functions) , of the selected system. Valuations of these situations in terms of sustainabil ity have to be given and (potential) conflicts identified. The different functio ns have to be evaluated separately, in the context of the actual state of the wa ter systems (being the integrated result of all pressures). For example, the sui tability of the integrated result of all pressures). For example, the suitabilit y of the water as to the function "drinking water" has to be evaluated. The leve l of expected changes in satisfying the different demands (given the autonomous development) has to be indicated (diagnosis).
These activcities may be done descriptively, for separate components (for exampk e a map of a certain aspect of ground water quality), of causal relatioships (pr essure-state-impact chains). Also evaluation of the performance of current polic ies has to be addressed here.
An important aspect, in general, is the description of the quality of the river sediments. Sediments. Sediments are an important sink for jydrophobic pollutants . Consequently, former discharges of persistent pollutants may limit specific fu nctions in down stream areas for decades.
All this information will be expressed in terms of environmental indicators (for pressure, state, impact and response).
Each user will be evaluated as to its impact on the system to the background of current policies. This produces a user-related description as well as an overall view.
Step 4
Development and analy sis of scenarios
Different scenarios (internally consistent sets of projections) can be evaluated , based on different policy options, restricted to one user demand or for a set of users or for all users together. For these projections, the same indicators a nd models as applied in step 3 will be used. The outcome is pressure-impact-info rmation in terns of indicators and the most promising scenarios. Projections mus t be baded on the present stage of development of a country. In the future, a co untry may develop, for example, from an agricultural character into the directio n of industrialization. Then, mutual valuation of sectors and functions may be c hange. This is up to the authorities and has to be expressed in the scenarios.
Step 5
Selection of promising interventions
The overall results of the analyses of steps 3 and 4 have to be translated into meaningful actions.
This step involves the development and analysis of potential promising (effectiv e) interventions (wichin the context of the most promising scenarios) to make pr ogress as to multi-functional sustainable use of water, considering all users an d demands and impacting factors on the system. These interventions may involve b asin wide development plans, management strategies, reallocation, sanitation, re gulation, reservoir construction, demand management, etc..
ANNEX
Models
Different existing models can be used within the overall multidisciplinary frame work, in combination with GIS-tools where relevant. For example for hydrology, s imple lumped water balance model u to and including complex grid based ground wa ter-surface water models are available. Selection of the models will be based on the identified specifications per case.
These models will be included in the toolbox of the methodology.
Data
The methodology must allow to operate with different data categories and in data rich as well as data poor situations. The three data categories to be considere d are:
- measured data (input data, arameter values), directly useful (or via interpola tion);
- data derived from the literature and / or based on expert judgemet (like soil characteristics related to types or baded on expert judgement (like soil charact eristics related to types of aquifer material);
- data extrapolated from other regions (where the underlying information is avai lable). An example is the estimmation of withdrawals based on population density and water use per capita.
Furthermore, a database with environmental indicators directed to water has to b e involved. Selections are dictated by water functions and region-related proble ms.
ANNEX 2 WORKSHOP ON COMPARATIVE RISK ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITY SETTING
1. Introduction
Risk assessment usually deals with the analysis of specific substances or a prob lem area. Another way to use risk assessment as a tool is to compare risks from multiple problems at the state, regional, national or global level. This compara tive risk assessment process involves the following steps:
1) Listing of all problem areas in the region, state or countt.
2) Ranking the problems on the basis of risk (human health, ecology, and welfare or quality of life); this ranking is based on an analysis of a vailable data sp ecific to the problem in that region, state, or counry, and
3) Developing an action plan to address the problem areas, based on the risk ran king and other factors (e.g. thecnology options, economic considerations, public opinion, etc.)
2. Workshop objectives
The proposed worksho intends to rovide a good mechanmism for an international sh aring of ideas and experiences on using risk analysis as a tool for environmenta l risk management priorities, and thus contribution to a cost effective implemen tation of public policy.
The workshop will be designed as:
1) A systematic training exercise to share historical perspectives of successes as well as failures of environmental risk management.
2) Trainers and trainees will jointly work through a set of typical environmenta l issues and problems to analyze the magnitude of hazards, sompoare them, and ra nk them in a step-by-step approach.
3) Communication of comparative risk analysis to regulatory decision makers and to the public.
4) Provide management tools for the definition and measurement of national and l ocal environmental goals.
3. Workshop participants
Approximately 30 participants in each session would be convenient, however, up t o 50 could be accommodated. The initial series of 2 or 3 sessions are intended t o "TEACH the TEACHERS", so that TEACHERS can, im turn, teach many more officials and students.
4. Target audience (who should participate)
- regulatory agencies, officials at various levels
- public policy officials including national planning and budgeting (the involve ment of the economic and social development sector is critically important)
- academic community
- industrial sector: national / private
- NGO community
5. Workshop organizers
NEPA
Local / regional organization (host)
Toni Schneider, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection , The Netherlands Si Duk Lee, United States Environmental Protection Office
6. Workshop sponsors
NEPA
US EPA
US-Asia Environmental Partnership
Asia Development Bank
UNIDO, UNDP
Air and Waste Management Association
China Programme, Simon FRASER NIVERSITY
7. Host
NEPA
Local / regional organization
8. Proposed date first workshop
spring 1995
ANNEX 3 EXPERIENCES WITH ENVIRONMENTAL FORECASTING AND PLANNING IN THE NETHERLAN DS
1. The National Environmental Policy Plan of the Netherlands was prepared in 111 1989 under the responsibility of the ministers of environment, agriculture, tran sport and economic affairs (the latter has the main responsibility for energy po licy). The report contains quantitative goals for pullution and the use of resou rces (water and energy) for the long term, from which short and medium term inte rmediate targets and 249 specific actions for the period 1990-1004 were derived. These goals and actions form an operational definition of sustainable developme nt as perceived by the Dutch government. During the process of making the Enviro nmental policy plan non-governmental stakeholders (from industry, farmers, retai lers, consumers and environmental groups) were involved as to create a broad con sensus on the targets and actions, some of which were related to changes in life styles (e.g. less use of energy, water, packaging materials and private cars) a nd production methods (e.g. waste recovery, good housekeeping, extensivation of agricultural practices).
2. Quantitative goals and priorities in actions were based on the scientific dat a that were compiled in the first ENVironmental Outlook "Concern for Tomorrow" ( 1998). This report was made by the National Institute for Public Health and Envi ronment (RIVM) at the request of ministries involved in the National Environment al Policy Plan. The respective ministries put forward the topics that had to be addressed in the outlook, but gave RIVM a free hand in adding other issues and i n the scientific "elaboration". The environmental outlook contains not only a de scrition of the current state of the environment but also an quantitative outloo k on possible future states, given the alternative policy actions that can be ta ken (e.g. "current policy" or "business as usual", "application of best availabl e end-of -pipe techniques" and "structural changes in production methods and lif e styles"). The report gives both the costs (including the socio-economic effect s) and the environmental effects of possible policy actions, so that trade offs can be made between socio-economic goals (e.g. income distribution, employment, budget deficit) and environmental goals.
3. The main conclusions of the first environmental outlook were that 70-90% redu ction of most fypes of pollution was necessary in order to obtain a sustainable use of resources (e.g. forests, biodiversity, ground water) and a safe air and w ater quality). These reductions can only be met through application of clean tec hnologies and structural changes in life styles. The socio-economic consequences of such drastic measure would not be prohibitive according to estimates of the economic Central Planing Bureau.
4. It was made clear in the outlook that although some problems were not yet vis ible (e.g. pollution of ground water and climate change) they would occur if cur rent practices were continued. It was also made clear that due to time lags in t he environmental system timely actions should have to be taken in order to preve nt such problems. Waiting until these problems would be visible in monitoring sy stems. would mean that it would take decades to solve them.
5. The environmental outlook was produced in cooperation with national institute s specialized in such fields as water resources, energy, transport, agriculture. The (economic) Central Planning Bureau was responsible for estimating the socio -economic effects of the different policy scenarios. During the production proce ss of the first environmental outlook as much scientific consensus as possible w as build on the issues that had to be addressed in the environmental policy plan . Uncertainty margins were presented when no complete consensus was possible. A wide scientific review was used as to commit scientist of universities and non-g overnmental institutes to the main findings of the outlook.
6. The impact of the report on both the general public and the policy makers was high. Even the prime minister and the queen expressed their concern about the f uture of the environment. As there were littel or no scientific dissidents the r eport was accepted by al ministries involved as the scientific basis for negatio ns and priority setting within the government.
7. After the environmental policy plan was published RIVM was asked to monitor a nd evaluate the implementation of the actions and their future developments. Thu sfar two new volumes of the environmental outlook were produced (number two in 1 991 and number three in 1993). In order to evaluate the effects of the actions l aid down in the National Environmental Policy Plan monitoring the current enviro nmental quality is not enough. Monioring of current trends in the society (e.g. population growth, changes in production, mobility, cattle, energy use and even energy prices) were added to the traditional data that were monitored. The main messages of the new environmental outlooks were that trends in population growth , production and energy use are "worse" than trends in population growth, produc tion and energy use are "worse" than was expected when the first environmental o utlook was made and that subsequently more measures would be necessary to reach the long term goals that were laid down in the Environmental Policy Plan. The cu rrent low energy prices and the high growth rates in the energy intensive sector s would make it very difficult to meet all of the targets. On request of the min istries involved in process of making a second Environmental Policy Plan (for th e period 1995-1999) RIVM elaborated its decision support system so that policy m akers can get instantaneous insight in the costs and effects of additional polic y measures. In the future the evaluation process will be integrated into the nat ional budget planning cycle. Trade offs between environment and economy will be available on a yearly basis.
8. About 150 scientists are involved in the production of an environmental outlo ok (adding up to 40 full time years per outlook). The production time takes abou t 2 years, but this will be brought back to one year. The coordination and integ ration of all the contributions is done by a multi-disciplinary core group of 7 persons. Persons in the core-group have the ability to communicate with all the specialized scientists involved (most of them physical engineers, chemists, biol ogists, toxicologists, but also economists and social scientists). This group of generalists also form the interface between policy makers and science. They int erpret the desires of policy makers and translate the outcomes of research and m odel calculations into policy recommendations.
9. There are other examples of processes were scientific consensus is build in o rder to facilitate political negotiations, e.g. the International Panel on Clima te Change (IPCC) and the scientific task forces that support the negotiations un der UN-Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However there are a lso examples of successful environmental survers where scientific consensus was not a top priority, but were the start of a consensus process. RIVM supported th e 5th Environmental Action Plan of the EC and the Environmental Action Plan for Central and Eastern Europe as the start for a consensus process. Initiative not always has to be the government. It can also be the World Bank (as in Central an d Eastern Europe and in the Acid Rain Program for South East Asia), or even a non-governmental organization as the IUCN in Pakistan.