The goal of providing and increasing quantities of energy for the swift development of China, while preserving the local and global environment, is a formidable challenge. The Chinese government has shown itself to be fully aware of the problem, and has taken a number of important steps toward its solution. International cooperation can help in finding new ways to cope with the unprecedented and unique dimensions and characteristics of these issues for China. The activities carried out and the results achieved by the Energy strategies and Technologies Working Group of the China Council are a good indication of what can be expected from international cooperation.
The energy issue has two sides -- supply and demand. In the past, the focus of attention has been on energy supply, as its demand has been an independent variable for which little could be done, recently the improvement of energy efficiency in all sectors has rightly received the attention it deserves. Large margins for reducing energy consumption have been shown to exist in all sectors - industry, buildings, agriculture and transport - often at costs that are lower than those of supplying the extra energy that would otherwise be needed. Technological, normative, legislative and organizational measures are all necessary in order to fully exploit this potential. The Integrated Resource Planning promoted by the Energy Working Group in China and diffused to a number of provinces is good example of a tool, which by comparing directly the costs of saving energy to those of supplying it allows the optimal allocation of financial means in the energy sector. On the supply side, coal is and will remain the fundamental energy source for China; its reserves are very abundant and extraction costs are relatively low.
However, the use of coal in China meets with severe problems of two kinds: logistic and environmental. Coal is mostly found in the West, several thousand kilometers from the coastal areas in Eastern and Southern China where energy demand is growing fast. Transportation of coal over such long distances is already saturating the capacity of the railways, and its increased use would require major investments in infrastructures. It will probably prove to be more convenient to generate electricity close to the coal mines, and to transport electricity rather than coal.
From the environmental point of view, the use of coal is still mostly taking place using obsolete technologies, releasing large quantities of pollutants (such as SO2 and NO2) to the environment. The low efficiency in exploiting the energy content of coal is also responsible for excessively large emissions of CO2, considering the energy actually utilized.
It is imperative that large-scale coal plants (both for power production and for industrial use) adopt the best state of the art technologies, allowing greater efficiency and such lower emissions. Coal gasification represent a very interesting and exciting option: not only because it allows effective and clean power production, in particular through IGCC (integrated gasification and combined cycle), but because it would allow the transport and distribution of gas as an energy vector to be used for smaller plants and applications, such as domestic heating, where clean coal technologies cannot be applied. Natural gas is an excellent, clean, and effective source of energy; significant deposits have been found in China, but although further exploration and full exploitation of gas resources should be encouraged and sustained, it is not likely that domestic gas can constitute a major share in China's future energy budget. The possibility of importing LN G to feed the expanding industry in China's East coast should be seriously considered; in the more distance future, gas pipelines from Siberia or Turkmenistan, possibly extending to Japan and Korea, could provide an opportunity to bring to China large quantities of natural gas from the very large deposits existing there. There is a possible synergy between producer gas from coal gasification and natural gas (either domestic or imported) which can use the same distribution infrastructure.
Oil is also found in appreciable quantities in China, but again not on such a large scale as to meet the future needs of this country, especially if private transport is going to accompany economic development to the extent experienced in the present industrialized countries.
It is time to consider very accurately the possible pathways of the development of transport in China (both for passengers and goods). An early choice in favour of public versus private transport, of rail versus road, could help avoid some acute problems of urban environmental deterioration and traffic congestion, now experienced by most industrialized countries. But it is also important, and actually possible, to introduce innovations in the vehicles themselves. Electric vehicles (including scooters and bicycles) using advanced high energy-density batteries, and fuel cell vehicles (starting from urban buses, as suggested by the Energy Working Group) may provide new solutions which could also be exported to other countries.
On the other hand, the synthesis if liquid fuels from coal could also be considered. The route of direct coal liquefaction (which is expensive and environmentally not advisable) should be replaced by indirect liquefaction through coal gasification; in the long term, the option of producing hydrogen from coal (coupled with an extensive use of fuel cells) may prove to be the best solutions.
Renewable energies are an important part of any future scenario in all countries. China has great opportunities which should be exploited. Wind regimes, found f or instance in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Province, are among the best in the world for the economic exploitation of this source. The Renewable Resource Licence approach, introduced by the Energy Working Group, could be pioneered by China, and applied not only to wind but also to other renewable. Biomass energy use is already widely diffused in China as concerns the utilization of wastes, especially through the production of biogas. Novel approaches should be experimented, including the promotion of energy plantations in conjunction with the huge reforestation programme now under way.
I die not find any specific recommendations on nuclear energy coming from the Working Group, although some were given in previous years. It is true that nuclear energy is going through a difficult period, with very few new orders being placed, and with some persisting concerns about both safety and the final solution f or long-term radioactive wastes. Much of this difficulty is connected with financial restrictions (which have negative impacts on nuclear energy, which not only is very capital-intensive, but also comes in large lumps at a time), with the process of deregulation and privatization, and with the excellent economic and technical performance of power plants making use of natural gas. Even countries like France and Japan are somewhat reducing their emphasis on nuclear power. However, in a country such as China, with such as rapidly increasing energy consumption and a peculiar geographic distribution of energy resources and demand, nuclear energy is an option that should remain open for the future. There are, however, a number of conditions to be fulfilled. Nuclear energy hardly derive from a multiplicity of individual initiatives it requires central institutions, such as a very effective Regulatory Commission for licencing and safety controls; the experience of France tells us that nuclear works best when it is based on a standard type of plant, so that operating experience cumulates rapidly and is easily shared by all utilities.
Finally, let me say that the challenge China has to face in the field of energy and environment is also a great opportunity. China can adopt both advanced and innovative solutions, even some that have only been tested but not fully exploited in industrialized countries. Because the Chinese economy is growing rapidly, new plants and goods are needed everyday, and the lack of many infrastructures for the use of non-renewable energy sources, whose existence obviously affects the choices in industrialized countries, China is much less conditioned by past investment and can afford to try new ways.
I fully agree with the Energy Working Group's recommendation that China should " leap frog" to advanced solutions rather than follow a step-by-step procedure whenever is possible, convenient and directed to sustainable development.
